ICABE

Authors: Sławomir I. Bukowski, Joanna E. Bukowska

Abstract:

The paper is a result of research which aimed to identify the factors determining the USD/EUR rate of exchange and the strength of the influence in the long run. In the research we used the Frenkel - Bilson model and an econometric model built on its basis.
In the research we formulated a hypothesis that the USD/EUR rate of exchange is determined in an economic and statistically significant way by the following factors: M1 and M2 money supply in the euro area and USA, changes in the GDP rate of growth in the euro area and USA, changes in long term treasury bond yield to maturity in the euro area and USA. The results of the research confirmed the above hypothesis.

Key Words: theories of exchange rate, asset theories, Frenkel-Bilson model, long run determinants of exchange rate, cointegration of time series.

JEL code: F31.

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